How are monthly sales estimates calculated?
Our algorithm that generates monthly sales estimates was built using traffic estimates and actual sales data from merchants. We started by training a neural network (a machine learning model) using sales data from public financial disclosures (for big merchants that are public and disclose their revenue quarterly and from non-public stores that have willingly disclosed their sales estimates directly to us).
Our model uses traffic estimates (from Alexa) as the primary input, and falls back to Common Crawl centrality and page rank in cases where the store's domain is not covered by Alexa traffic estimates. In early 2021, we'll be adding traffic from other sources like SEMRush.
We also include several other inputs in the calculation including signals that indicate the quality and size of the business:
- Employee counts
- Presence of support, tracking, returns and financing pages
- Communication options (email, phone, chat, social media)
- Use of dropshipping or print-on-demand applications